Outlook for Q1 2026
Outokumpu's adjusted EBITDA improvement in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to benefit mainly from recovering stainless steel delivery volumes, which are forecast to rise by 20–30% from the fourth quarter of 2025. The change in deliveries mainly reflects normal seasonality and the exceptionally low level in business area Europe in the comparative period, which was additionally affected by challenges related to the supply chain planning solution in the ERP rollout in the fourth quarter. With the current raw material prices, some raw material-related inventory and metal derivative gains are forecasted to be realized in the first quarter.
Guidance for Q1 2026
Adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be higher compared to the fourth quarter of 2025
Short-term risks and uncertainties
Outokumpu is exposed to a range of risks and uncertainties that may adversely affect its business and operations. To mitigate these risks, the company applies continuous and comprehensive risk management across its operations.
Global economic activity, shifts in trade and economic policies, and geopolitical tensions expose Outokumpu to risks and uncertainties in its operating environment. These factors could have an adverse impact on the company's operations, financial
performance, and overall financial position.
The main short-term risks relate to the development in trade policies and increased geopolitical tensions, which could disrupt global trade, increase inflation, and slow economic growth, ultimately leading to possible weakening of demand and pressure on stainless steel prices, even with their broad range of end uses.
The U.S. administration’s shifts in trade policies has created uncertainties in global trade flows and imposed duties of 50% on steel imports in 2025. As a result, high volumes of low-priced Asian imports risk being diverted into Europe, continuing to
burden the European stainless steel market. To address this, the European Commission has proposed more effective safeguards to strengthen the industry’s competitive position, with measures expected by mid-2026. Since Outokumpu operates in both the
US and Europe, imposed tariffs may support US operations while potentially negatively impacting European operations if effective safeguards are not implemented.
Starting January 2026, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) aims to ensure that imported carbon-intensive goods face the same carbon costs as those produced within the EU. However, uncertainties remain regarding the effectiveness of these measures in preventing circumvention, ensuring a level playing field in climate action and preventing carbon leakage.
The company remains exposed to risks related to volatile metal prices, especially nickel. Financial derivatives are used to manage the impacts of nickel price changes. Cyber security threats and dependencies on critical suppliers and machinery expose Outokumpu to the risk of operational disruption and additional costs.
For more information on Outokumpu’s risks, please refer to the Annual Report for 2024 and the Notes to the 2024 Financial Statements. The Annual Report for 2025 and the Notes to the 2025 Financial Statements are planned to be published during week 9.