Outlook for Q4 2025
Group stainless steel deliveries in the fourth quarter are expected to decrease by 5-15% compared to the third quarter mainly due to continued market weakness in business area Europe and seasonal slowdown in business area Americas. Asian imports to Europe still remain high compared to the low demand in the stainless steel market.
Maintenance breaks in business areas Europe and Americas as well as the rollout of a new Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system and supply chain solution in business area Europe, are expected to have an impact of up to EUR -20 million on adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter.
With the current raw material prices, no major raw material-related inventory and metal derivative gains or losses are forecasted to be realized in the fourth quarter.
Guidance for Q4 2025
Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be lower compared to the third quarter.
Short-term risks and uncertainties
Outokumpu is exposed to various risks and uncertainties that may have an adverse impact on its business and operations. However, the company has taken prompt measures to manage and control these risks.
The development of the global economy, trade and economic policies, geopolitical tensions, and the continued war in Ukraine all expose Outokumpu to risks and uncertainties within its operating environment. The main short-term uncertainties relate especially to the trade policies. Continued adverse development in trade policies could further disrupt global trade flows, increase inflation and depress global growth. Possible escalation of geopolitical tensions and conflicts could also increase disruptions in global supply chains. In Finland, the proposed increase of the mining tax could negatively impact the company’s financial performance and investment environment.
All these events could have an impact on Outokumpu's operating environment, business, and stainless steel demand.
Throughout 2025, the U.S. administration’s pivot on trade policies has resulted in uncertainties in global trade flows. In March, the U.S. re-imposed Section 232 duties of 25% on steel imports without exemptions for any country including the EU. In June, the US increased these duties from 25% to 50%. From a European point of view, this is likely to accelerate the diversion of Asian exports further to the EU with a generally lower level of tariffs. To improve the effectiveness of trade measures in Europe, The EU Commission unveiled a plan on October 7, 2025 to replace expiring safeguard quotas with measures addressing global overcapacities. This proposed measure aims to restore import shares to levels prior to the surges caused by overcapacities. This is to be achieved by substantially decreasing the current quotas and increasing the duty to 50% for out-quota-volumes. The proposal is subject to approval by the European Parliament and Member States and is expected to be imposed by July 1, 2026, at the latest. The current safeguard measures are set to expire on June 30, 2026. In addition, the EU initiated an expiry review in October of the anti-dumping duties on stainless hot-rolled products from China, Taiwan, Indonesia and Turkey. The investigation will take 12–15 months and will conclude whether these duties will be renewed for another five years, or be allowed to expire. Outokumpu has assets in both Europe and the U.S, enabling a
geographically diversified presence.
Outokumpu is exposed to energy price sensitivity owing to adverse geopolitical events. A severe and sudden disruption in the natural gas supply could affect the price or availability and impact Outokumpu’s operations in Europe. Cyber security threats, trade disruptions with raw materials and dependencies on critical suppliers and machinery expose Outokumpu to the risk of operational disruption
and additional costs. The company remains exposed to risks related to volatile metal prices, especially
nickel. Volatile metal prices may impact Outokumpu’s result, among other financial risks.
Several legal proceedings are on-going among various parties related to the terminated Fennovoima nuclear power plant project. From the beginning, Outokumpu has denied and continues to deny all grounds for liability related to the terminated project, including the existence of any contractual relationship, obligation, or arbitration agreement between Outokumpu and any Rosatom company. There may be attempts in the future to join Outokumpu into legal disputes arising out of the terminated project.
For more information on Outokumpu’s risks, please refer to the Annual Report for 2024 and the Notes to the 2024 Financial Statements.