Outlook for Q2 2026
Outokumpu's adjusted EBITDA improvement in the second quarter of 2026 is expected to benefit mainly from increasing stainless steel delivery volumes, which are forecast to rise by 0–10% from the first quarter of 2026.
With the current raw material prices, raw material-related inventory and metal derivative gains are forecasted to be realized in the second quarter.
Guidance for Q2 2026
Adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter of 2026 is expected to be higher compared to the first quarter of 2026.
Short-term risks and uncertainties
Outokumpu is exposed to a range of risks and uncertainties that may adversely affect its business and operations. To mitigate these risks, Outokumpu applies continuous and comprehensive risk management across the company.
Global economic activity, shifts in trade and economic policies, and geopolitical tensions expose Outokumpu to risks and uncertainties in its operating environment. These factors could have an adverse impact on the company's operations, financial performance, and overall financial position.
The main short-term risks relate to trade policy developments and heightened geopolitical tensions, including the escalation in the Middle East. These could disrupt global trade, increase inflation, and slow economic growth, ultimately weakening stainless steel demand and putting pressure on stainless steel prices, despite their broad range of end-uses.
The direct effects of the conflict in the Middle East were limited in the first quarter of 2026 and mainly related to higher freight costs, which are expected to increase further in the second quarter. Energy price hedging and the high share of Nordic electricity consumption, in a market primarily driven by renewable output and hydropower availability, help mitigate the impact of the volatility in the oil and gas markets. A prolonged conflict may lead to higher energy costs and uncertainties related to supply chain reliability.
Shifts in the U.S. administration’s trade policies have increased uncertainty in global trade flows and resulted in the imposition of 50% duties on steel imports in 2025. As a result, high volumes of low-priced Asian imports risk being diverted into Europe, continuing to burden the European stainless steel market. To address this, the European Commission will implement more effective safeguard measures starting July 1, 2026, to strengthen the industry’s competitive position. In addition, the US and Mexico have begun the first round of bilateral discussions in preparation for the joint review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) scheduled for July this year. Negotiators will consider, among other matters, reducing dependence on imports from outside the region, strengthening rules of origin, and enhancing the security of North American supply chains. Following the joint review, an extension of the USMCA could enhance regional trade dynamics and support higher manufacturing volumes of Outokumpu’s U.S. and Mexico operations. Since January 2026, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) aims to ensure that imported carbon-intensive goods face similar carbon costs as those produced within the EU. However, uncertainties remain regarding the effectiveness of safeguard measures and CBAM, including whether CBAM will ensure a level playing field and prevent carbon leakage.
The company remains exposed to risks related to volatile metal prices. Financial derivatives are used to manage the impacts of nickel price changes.
Cyber security threats and dependencies on critical suppliers and machinery expose Outokumpu to the risk of operational disruption and additional costs.
For more information on Outokumpu’s risks, please refer to the Annual Report for 2025 Risk Management section, and the Notes to the 2025 Financial Statements.