Outlook for Q4 2026
Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2026 is expected to be affected by lower delivery volumes across the businesses and higher costs. The impact is expected to be largest in business area Europe, where demand is anticipated to remain weak and customer inventory levels are elevated.
Stainless steel delivery volumes are forecast to decrease by 5-15% from the third quarter of 2026.
With current raw material prices, some raw material-related inventory and metal derivative losses are forecasted for the fourth quarter.
Guidance for Q4 2026
Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2026 is expected to be at a similar level to the EUR 10 million recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Short-term risks and uncertainties
Outokumpu is exposed to a range of risks and uncertainties that may adversely affect its business and operations. To mitigate these risks, Outokumpu applies continuous and comprehensive risk management across the company.
Economic activity, shifts in trade policies and geopolitical tensions expose Outokumpu to risks and uncertainties in its operating environment. These factors could have an adverse impact on the company's operations, financial performance, and overall
financial position.
In the short term, trade-policy developments and heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly conflicts in the Middle East and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, could increase input, energy and logistics costs and weaken economic growth,
especially European manufacturing activity. This could reduce stainless steel demand and put pressure on prices, despite stainless steel’s broad range of end uses.
In the third quarter of 2026, the direct effects of the conflict in the Middle East were limited to higher freight and energy costs. In the fourth quarter, the direct impact is expected to increase somewhat driven by higher energy costs. The duration of the conflict and its longer-term impacts remain uncertain.
Energy price hedging and the high share of Nordic electricity consumption, in a market primarily driven by hydropower, wind and nuclear power, help mitigate the impact of rising oil and gas prices.
The U.S. maintains 50% tariffs on steel imports, which may cause low-priced Asian steel to be diverted to Europe. To address this, the EU introduced a new steel safeguard framework on July 1, 2026, replacing the previous measures. The immediate impact on the European stainless steel market has been positive, but it is still too early to assess the long-term effectiveness.
CBAM, effective since January 2026, complements the safeguard framework by aiming to ensure imported carbon-intensive products face similar carbon costs as EU producers. The European Commission is considering extending CBAM to selected downstream products, but the scope, timing and final design remain uncertain and subject to the political process. Without effective downstream coverage, higher carbon costs for EU producers could lead to manufacturing activity relocating outside Europe and increase imports of finished products, thereby reducing demand for steel produced in Europe.
The U.S., Mexico, and Canada are continuing negotiations after failing to agree on a renewal of the USMCA by July 1, 2026. The agreement remains in force, and the parties will conduct annual reviews over the next 10 years. Unless they agree to extend it, the USMCA will expire on July 1, 2036. Any party may also withdraw from the agreement by providing six months’ notice. An extension of the USMCA could support stronger regional trade and higher production volumes at Outokumpu’s operations in the U.S. and Mexico.
The company remains exposed to risks related to volatile metal prices. Financial derivatives are used to manage the impacts of nickel price changes. Cyber security threats and dependencies on critical suppliers and machinery expose Outokumpu to the risk of operational disruption and additional costs.
For more information on Outokumpu’s risks, please refer to the Annual Report for 2025 Risk Management section and the notes to the 2025 Financial Statements.