Outlook for Q3 2026
Group stainless steel deliveries in the third quarter are expected to decrease by 0–10% compared to the second quarter due to seasonality in business area Europe.
Based on the current order book, the net impact of realized prices and raw material costs is expected to be positive.
With current raw material prices, some raw material-related inventory and metal derivative gains are forecasted for the third quarter.
Guidance for Q3 2026
Adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter of 2026 is expected to be on a similar level compared to the second quarter of 2026.
Short-term risks and uncertainties
Outokumpu is exposed to a range of risks and uncertainties that may adversely affect its business and operations. To mitigate these risks, Outokumpu applies continuous and comprehensive risk management across the company.
Global economic activity, shifts in trade and economic policies, and geopolitical tensions expose Outokumpu to risks and uncertainties in its operating environment. These factors could have an adverse impact on the company's operations, financial
performance, and overall financial position.
The main short-term risks relate to trade policy developments and heightened geopolitical tensions, including the conflicts in the Middle East and disruptions to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. These factors could increase inflation and slow economic growth, ultimately weakening stainless steel demand and putting pressure on prices, despite stainless steel’s broad range of end uses.
In the second quarter of 2026, the direct effects of the conflict in the Middle East were limited mainly to higher freight costs. In the third quarter, the overall impact is expected to remain broadly in line with the second quarter, driven mainly by higher energy costs, while the impact of increased freight costs is expected to remain limited due to mitigation measures.
Energy price hedging and the high share of Nordic electricity consumption, in a market primarily driven by renewable energy, especially wind and hydropower, help mitigate the impact of volatility in oil and gas markets. However, an escalation of the conflict could lead to higher energy costs and uncertainties related to supply chain reliability and weigh on economic growth, stainless steel demand and prices over the medium term, despite stainless steel’s broad range of end-uses.
The U.S. continues to maintain 50% duties on steel imports generally. As a result, high volumes of low-priced Asian imports risk being diverted into Europe, continuing to burden the European stainless steel market. To address this, the steel safeguard measures, a new framework to protect the EU steel market from the negative trade-related effects of global overcapacity became effective on July 1, 2026, replacing the current EU steel safeguard measure, which expired on June 30, 2026, ensuring continued protection for the EU steel sector. Since January 2026, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) aims to ensure that imported carbon-intensive goods face similar carbon costs as those produced within the EU. However, uncertainties remain regarding the effectiveness of safeguard measures and CBAM, including whether CBAM will ensure a level playing field and prevent carbon leakage.
The U.S. and Mexico have begun bilateral discussions for the joint review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). On July 1, 2026 the parties did not collectively agree to renew USMCA in its current form and, therefore, the parties will continue to renegotiate the agreement. Unless the parties agree to renew the agreement or one party formally withdraws, USMCA will remain in force, and the parties will have up to 10 more years to decide on whether to renew it. An extension of USMCA could enhance regional trade dynamics and support higher manufacturing volumes at Outokumpu’s U.S. and Mexico operations.
The company remains exposed to risks related to volatile metal prices. Financial derivatives are used to manage the impacts of nickel price changes.
Cyber security threats and dependencies on critical suppliers and machinery expose Outokumpu to the risk of operational disruption and additional costs.
For more information on Outokumpu’s risks, please refer to the Annual Report for 2025 Risk Management section, and the Notes to the 2025 Financial Statements.