Long-term financial targets
Connected to our vision to be the best value creator in stainless steel by 2020 through customer orientation and efficiency, defined measures of success include profitability as well as further deleveraging. Quantified financial targets for the timeframe are:
- Adjusted EBITDA of EUR 750 million
- ROCE of 12%
- Gearing of <35%
These group level targets are expected to be reached by the end of 2020 at the latest. While the global demand for stainless steel continues to grow, Outokumpu takes a conservative approach on the market growth and metal price assumptions, and expects the targeted profitability improvement to come primarily through efficiency and cost improvements in the current scope of business, supported by further strengthening of Outokumpu’s cost competitiveness and market position market presence and market share particularly in Americas.
Outlook for Q4/2019
The stainless steel market is expected to remain subdued. The European market is suffering from continued import pressure from Asia and low underlying demand whereas in the US, we expect to see the normal fourth-quarter seasonality. Consequently, Outokumpu expects its fourth-quarter stainless steel deliveries to be lower than in the third quarter of 2019.
The planned annual maintenance work at the Tornio stainless steel mill is expected to have up to EUR 15 million negative impact on business area Europe’s profitability.
Assuming the current raw material prices, the losses from raw material-related inventories and metal derivatives from the third quarter are not expected to be repeated in the fourth quarter.
Outokumpu expects its fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA to be at a similar level to the third quarter of 2019 (Q3/19: EUR 45 million).
The Board of Directors updated Outokumpu's dividend policy on January 31, 2018. According to the policy, dividend pay-out ratio throughout a business cycle shall be in a range of 30-50 per cent of net income.
Short-term risks and uncertainties
Outokumpu is exposed to the following risks and uncertainties in the short term: risks and uncertainties in implementing the announced vision, including measures to implement new IT systems and processes, improve operational reliability, drive competitiveness and further improve financial performance; risks and uncertainties related to market development in stainless steel, ferrochrome and competitor actions; availability and price of certain critical supplies; dependencies on certain critical suppliers; the risk of changes in metal prices impacting cash tied up in working capital; changes in the prices of electrical power, fuels, ferrochrome, nickel, ferrosilicon, iron and molybdenum; currency developments affecting the euro, the US dollar, the Swedish krona, and the British pound; fair value of shareholdings; project implementation risks; IT dependency and cyber security risks; risks due to a fragmented system environment; counterparty risks related to customers and other business partners, including suppliers and financial institutions. Possible adverse changes in the global political and economic environment may have a significant adverse impact on Outokumpu’s overall business and access to financial markets.